Looking Ahead at 2021; A Post-Pandemic World?

by John J. Metzler
Weirs Times Contributing Writer

Covid-19 changed everything. Our Lives, our Health, the Economy, the Election, and certainly our Future. While the pandemic presents an enduring challenge to the world, events nonetheless move forward shrouded by the continuing health emergency and jolted by lethal socio/economic ramifications. Now, nearly one year into suffering from the Wuhan virus, we enter a new year with trepidation but with guarded optimism that we may be on the verge of conquering the deadly virus.
Yet the world moves on and we inherit the static deadly conflicts in places like Syria, Yemen and Libya. We see escalating ethnic fighting in Ethiopia and the Sub-Saharan Sahel region.
Let’s review some key issues;

Flash Points
China: Will we see Deja vu all over again with a more accommodating Biden Administration?
The People’s Republic presents the U.S. with both an economic and strategic challenge; the Trump Administration notably confronted communist China over its trading and technology theft practices. But will the Biden team who views Beijing as an economic and military competitor return U.S. policy towards China with a debatable Reset or Measured Skepticism? Word has it that Biden team advisors want better ties and are suggesting American cooperation with China’s Space Program among other things! (What planet are we on??).

Hong Kong: Hong’s Kong’s status has proven a political and security Barometer on Beijing’s intentions, both to the former British Crown Colony as much as a warning to free and democratic Taiwan. By suppressing civil and political rights in Hong Kong, the People’s Republic glaringly shows its true colors and signaled the rules of the game for Taiwan and the disputed South China Sea.

Significantly, France and Poland among others are pushing back against a European Union-China investment agreement.

Iran/The Persian Puzzle: To Confront, Coerce or Coexist? The seemingly perpetual crisis with the Islamic Republic of Iran which has now lasted nearly forty years and outlasted seven American presidents. An incompetent and corrupt theocratic regime still rules Iran. Nonetheless, the new Administration eagerly wishes to return to the flawed 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal, possibly before Iran’s presidential elections in June.

Korean Peninsula: Joe Biden’s first security challenge may well be North Korea, whose mercurial leader Kim Jong-un was neutralized by Donald’s Trump’s epic showdown in 2017. Though North Korea has refrained from testing nuclear weapons or long range missiles since the Trump deal, expect Pyongyang to test the waters with a new Administration. In the showdown, Washington will not likely pay enough attention to Japan a key and reliable U.S. ally in a bid to Play the China card in presumably solving North Korea.

Post Pandemic Phase
WHO: Why reward the World Health Organization (WHO) for not sounding the virus alarm in time? Plans by the incoming administration to return the USA to the WHO membership are rooted in feel good emotions and global hand holding rather than critical analysis. Refrain from rejoining until WHO gets credible, verifiable and transparent medical information from inside China to see what really happened in Wuhan.

Vaccine Diplomacy. The USA and the Europeans and Latin America are distributing the vaccines. Europe remains in lockdown and has had as many fatalities as the U.S.

Britain’s seemingly endless BREXIT battle is over; Prime Minister Boris Johnson finally got a trade deal with the European Union for a less than bitter break.

The incoming Biden Administration, Jobama 3, heralds Back to Business as usual with a team of Washington Insiders who reflect the status quo, especially in dealing with China and Iran.

Joe Biden inherits an economy which after the Covid shock has begun to rebound. Unemployment has dropped dramatically but we need prudent policy to keep economic growth alive. Yet poor policies on the state level in places like California and New York have hobbled growth and destroyed small business through a series of unpredictable policy swings.

Wild Card Wishes
The Emotional and economic stress of shutdowns and the ensuring economic disaster are yet to be fully comprehended. School disruptions have caused far deeper psychological stress on students and teachers than we assume. We need normalcy not lockdowns and edicts.

The American sponsored Abraham Accords between Israel and key Arab states show the Middle East that peace is possible, presenting a far better alternative that perpetual animosity and confrontation. Keep the diplomatic momentum going towards peace.

Free Hong Kong media activist Jimmy Lai who sits in prison for daring to criticize the Beijing regime.

The world has changed. Have a HEALTHY and Happy New Year.